Tensions between the United States and China have intensified after President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs, prompting China to hit back with its own. The fallout is rippling across markets and industries, with US casino operators heavily exposed to Macau now facing rising pressure.
Morningstar Equity Research says the growing geopolitical risks, combined with recent policy decisions from the White House, are increasing the risk premium on stocks tied to Macau’s gaming industry. The firm adjusted its valuation outlook for several major casino operators, citing the uncertain environment.
Dan Wasiolek, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, wrote in a recent note that the firm cut its fair value estimates for Las Vegas Sands from $56 to $53 per share, and for MGM Resorts from $49 to $46 per share. The estimate for Wynn Resorts remained unchanged at $111.
The concern stems from Macau’s importance to these companies. Wynn Resorts owns Wynn Macau Ltd, which runs two casino resorts in the city. Las Vegas Sands owns Sands China Ltd, which operates a group of resorts including The Venetian Macao, The Parisian Macao, and The Londoner Macao. MGM Resorts holds a majority stake in MGM China Holdings Ltd, which also owns two large casino properties in Macau.
All three subsidiaries—Wynn Macau Ltd, Sands China, and MGM China—are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Morningstar noted that roughly 60 percent of Las Vegas Sands’ EBITDA will likely come from Macau by the end of the decade. For Wynn Resorts, the figure is closer to 50 percent. MGM Resorts, which has a smaller Macau footprint, is estimated to rely on the region for about 20 percent of its EBITDA.
“Trump’s tariff war is moving the U.S. further toward protectionism, a shift we see lasting for the foreseeable future,” Wasiolek said.
The backdrop for this revaluation includes the US placing Macau on its list of “foreign adversary” jurisdictions in February. This added another layer of tension as companies assess the potential long-term risks of operating in the region.
On top of these developments, global markets saw sharp declines to start the week. Stocks across Asia dropped as much as 10 percent in early Monday trading after China announced a 34 percent tariff on all US imports starting April 10. The news, which broke after Friday’s market close, triggered a wave of selling across equities and digital assets.
Cryptocurrency prices also fell sharply. Bitcoin dropped below $77,000, while Ethereum and XRP both lost more than 15 percent. The drop followed concerns that rising global friction and trade barriers would weigh on broader risk sentiment.
Despite the recent pressure, Morningstar still expects Macau’s casino licenses to be renewed beyond 2032. Wasiolek wrote, “We maintain our view that all six gaming concessions will get renewed and extended beyond the 2032 period.” He added that China aims to position Macau as a global tourism hub, and achieving that goal will require the expertise of operators like Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, and MGM Resorts.
For now, casino investors will be watching both trade headlines and broader market reactions closely as tensions continue to unfold.
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