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Sports prediction markets became one of the main regulatory topics at G2E 2026, with Caesars Entertainment, MGM Resorts and Wynn Resorts executives arguing that sports contracts should face the same state rules as sportsbooks.
Good to Know
- MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle said prediction market operators should obtain state gaming licenses where required.
- A September 25 federal appeals court ruling allowed Ohio and Tennessee to apply gambling laws to Kalshi sports contracts.
- Federal appeals courts now disagree over whether federal commodities law overrides state gambling regulation.
Court Split Adds Weight To G2E Debate
The legal fight had already changed days before the Las Vegas conference.
On September 25, the Sixth Circuit ruled that Kalshi had not shown that sports event contracts qualify as swaps under federal law. Judges said Ohio and Tennessee could enforce state gambling laws against the platform.
However, federal courts do not agree. The Ninth Circuit previously allowed Nevada gambling law to apply to Kalshi, while the Third Circuit reached the opposite conclusion in a New Jersey case. New Jersey has asked the US Supreme Court to review that ruling.
Against that backdrop, Hornbuckle argued at G2E that prediction platforms should not offer sports contracts in states without going through the licensing process faced by regulated sportsbooks.
“(Prediction markets) are hurting the industry, full stop,” Hornbuckle said.
He pointed to Utah, where traditional sports betting remains prohibited, as an example of why states should retain control over gambling access. MGM previously rejected an opportunity to enter prediction markets, with Hornbuckle citing regulatory risks across jurisdictions where the company holds gaming licenses.
“If they want to come in Nevada and pay a license, and do what we all do, God bless them,” Hornbuckle said.
Caesars CEO Tom Reeg approached the issue from a consumer protection angle. He compared the current prediction market dispute with the early daily fantasy sports period, when operators entered states before clear local frameworks existed.
Reeg said his concern was less about younger customers choosing prediction platforms and more about damage that an incident in an lightly regulated product could cause across legal gambling.
Wynn CEO Craig Billings also warned that wider access to betting products could eventually bring federal lawmakers deeper into an area traditionally handled by states.
AGA Targets Prediction Market Regulation
American Gaming Association CEO Bill Miller used his G2E address to argue that licensed casinos face taxes, responsible gaming requirements and state oversight that prediction platforms can avoid.
AGA data released earlier in September estimated that Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion with regulated sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, compared with $29.4 billion last season.
Miller also linked the dispute to tribal gaming authority and state control over gambling.
“While we knock on the front door, there’s a new group of well-funded bad guys who’ve kicked in the back door,” Miller said.
Prediction market companies take a different legal position. They argue that event contracts fall under federal commodities regulation rather than individual state gambling systems. Kalshi said after the Sixth Circuit decision that a state by state framework conflicts with the nationwide structure Congress created for federally regulated exchanges.
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