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Higher UK gambling taxes could send more players to offshore sites, according to H2 Gambling Capital, which expects licensed operators to lose further market share by 2031.
Good to Know
- Offshore gambling revenue could reach £1.4 billion by 2031.
- Licensed operators may retain only 78% of online turnover.
- Remote betting duty will rise to 25% in April 2027.
UK Licensed Market Faces Share Loss
H2 expects offshore turnover to rise from £16.6 billion in 2025 to about £36 billion by 2031. Offshore gross gaming yield could increase from £685 million to £1.4 billion over the same period.
Licensed operators held around 92% of online gambling revenue in 2025. H2 forecasts that share will fall to 85% by 2031. Measured by turnover, the licensed share could drop from 90% to 78%.
The Remote Gaming Duty increase forms a major part of the forecast. H2 described the tax rise as a “significant headwind” for regulated operators, with weaker bonuses and lower player value likely to benefit offshore brands.
Online casino revenue could fall to £5.64 billion in 2026 and £5.39 billion in 2027. Betting revenue may receive short-term support from the World Cup before falling to £2.47 billion in 2027.
Betting and Gaming Council Chief Executive Grainne Hurst said the tax changes would help overseas operators rather than the regulated market.
“The only winners from these tax hikes will be criminal operators based overseas. Britain will lose jobs, investment and tax revenue, while consumers are pushed towards operators offering none of the protections found in the regulated market.”
H2 based its offshore estimate on web traffic, bounce rates, time spent and customer value. Its model assumes offshore visitors spend twice as much as visitors to licensed sites.
Consumer risk also remains high. TransUnion found that 12% of young adults had knowingly experienced fraud through an unlicensed betting site, with people aged 25 to 34 most affected.
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