Ipsos Survey Shows Most US Adults See Prediction Markets as Gambling

A new survey suggests most Americans do not view prediction market trading the same way platform operators do. Results from Ipsos, in a study commissioned by the American Institute for Boys and Men, found that a clear majority of US adults see prediction markets as closer to gambling than investing.

Good to Know

• 61% of respondents said prediction market trading is closer to gambling.
• Only 8% said it is closer to investing.
• About 1 in 5 Americans said they are at least somewhat familiar with prediction markets.

Most Respondents Put Prediction Markets in the Gambling Bucket

Ipsos surveyed 2,363 adults from February 27 to March 1. The study also included an oversample of men ages 18 to 24, according to the commissioning group.

Among those surveyed, 61% said prediction market trading is “closer to gambling,” while 8% said it is “closer to investing.” Another 18% called it a mix of both, and 12% said it is neither.

Prediction markets have grown fast in recent years. Users can trade contracts linked to sports, politics, business, entertainment, and other real-world outcomes. Growth in that area has drawn attention from regulators and from parts of the gambling industry as the line between financial trading and wagering keeps getting argued over.

Jonathan Cohen, policy lead at the American Institute for Boys and Men, said younger men are one of the groups most exposed to gambling-related risk, especially as sports-linked contracts become more common.

“The harms of sports gambling are disproportionately concentrated among younger men, and so the prediction markets are clearly the new frontier in this conversation about sports gambling,” Cohen told Axios.

Regulation Debate Keeps Getting Louder

Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour has pushed back on the idea that prediction markets belong in the gambling category.

“I just don’t really know what this has to do with gambling,” he said back in April. “If we are gambling, then I think you’re basically calling the entire financial market gambling.”

Even so, pressure around regulation keeps building. Federal and state officials are both looking at how prediction markets should be governed. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has signaled plans to take legal action to defend its authority over the space.

At the state level, several gaming regulators, including the regulator of Nevada, along with other states, have tried to block prediction market platforms from operating in their jurisdictions.

Cohen said public opinion could end up carrying weight in that fight over oversight.

“If people see this as more like gambling than investing, then certainly these platforms — especially the sports contracts — should be regulated more like gambling than investing,” Cohen said.

Familiarity with prediction markets also remains low. Roughly 4% of respondents said they had used one in the past six months, while only about 1 in 5 said they were very or somewhat familiar with them. That leaves plenty of room for public opinion to keep shifting as more people hear about the products and regulators decide how far the platforms can go.

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