Macau November Gaming Revenue Surprises Analysts

A steady rhythm keeps building through Macau, and analysts watching the market continue to sound more upbeat as fresh numbers roll in. JP Morgan Securities Asia Pacific Ltd shared a new read on the citys latest casino revenue data, and the tone stayed confident.

Good to Know

• Monthly GGR keeps landing above market expectations in most months of the year
• Mass gaming continues to outperform pre-pandemic levels in a strong way
• VIP play shows healthier activity than early forecasts suggested

Analysts Are Surprised

Macau released the November GGR figure shortly before JP Morgan weighed in. Nearly MOP21.09 billion in revenue brought a 14.4 percent jump year on year, a number that added more proof of steady tourism and strong gaming activity spreading through the city.

JP Morgan described the trend with a simple line: “the beat goes on.” Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian pointed out that November did more than clear expectations. They noted that the performance “very comfortably beat the (already moved-up) consensus of circa 10 percent year-on-year, which is impressive particularly considering the typically slow seasonality of the month.”

The brokerage said the monthly result reached roughly 92 percent of pre-Covid figures, the highest recovery level seen since travel resumed.

A Mix Of Mass Play And VIP

Market watchers tracked the individual segments closely. JP Morgan estimated that mass gaming, including slots, grew roughly 12 to 13 percent year on year and surged past pre-pandemic levels by more than 125 percent. VIP activity also rose more than 30 percent year on year, reaching 30 to 35 percent of pre-pandemic performance.

The combination created a well-rounded lift across the table floors and helped the overall rate of recovery look more balanced than in earlier periods.

December to End the Year with a Bang?

Analysts now see December as the month that could reshape the narrative for the entire year. They wrote:

“December could finish 2025 with a bang. We currently model December GGR to grow 15-percent-plus, but all signs point to upside risk.”

They added that a jump of more than 20 percent would not surprise them and could offer the strongest monthly result of the entire year.

That kind of finish would lift fourth-quarter GGR to roughly 15 to 16 percent year-on-year growth and 5 to 6 percent sequential growth. JP Morgan highlighted that such performance would reflect the best quarter in six years and sit well above earlier projections.

The brokerage pointed to a simple link between the casino revenue trajectory and investor interest:

“Sustained double-digit profit growth, coupled with ongoing Street upgrades, is key to drawing long-only investors back and paving the way for a re-rating from the currently depressed multiples.”

Steady mass gaming strength, higher tourism volume, and more optimistic forecasts continue to shape the broader investment mood across major Macau operators.

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