Dutch Government Stands Firm on Gambling Tax Despite Revenue Concerns

The Dutch State Secretary for Taxation, Eugène Heijnen, has dismissed calls for a new policy to offset an expected shortfall in gambling tax revenue following recent tax hikes. His comments came during a debate in Parliament and were first reported by Casino Nieuws.

Good to Know

• Gambling tax in the Netherlands rose from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, and will hit 37.8% in 2026.
• A Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) report forecasts a €40m revenue drop instead of the expected €100m growth.
• Trade body VNLOK warns of a €200m shortfall due to declining GGR and new restrictions.

No Plans to Compensate Revenue Decline

Heijnen confirmed there are no government plans to counterbalance reduced tax income from the gambling sector. He said:

“It is true that the estimate for revenue has been revised downwards this year. This picture is broadly consistent with the expectations communicated by the KSA in a recent report.”

The KSA’s August 2025 analysis revealed that the tax increases could reduce iGaming revenue by around €40 million. This represents a stark reversal from earlier government forecasts of a €100 million rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the year.

Industry Warnings From VNLOK

The Licensed Dutch Online Gambling Providers association (VNLOK) released its own figures showing a 25% decline in GGR during the first half of 2025 compared with 2024. VNLOK estimates the new tax structure, combined with strict advertising bans, sponsorship restrictions, and deposit limits, could leave a €200 million hole in the state’s finances.

The group urged lawmakers to reconsider the framework before more damage is done to the regulated market.

Ministry of Finance and Budget Impact

Despite industry warnings, the Ministry of Finance has maintained that the higher tax rate will deliver an additional €200 million annually between 2025 and 2028. Heijnen added that fluctuations in tax revenue would be absorbed into the state budget rather than triggering compensatory measures.

“In accordance with budgetary rules, windfalls and shortfalls in tax revenue are reflected in the balance after policy is adopted,” he told Parliament. “Therefore, the revenue shortfall from this perspective is not a compensatory policy.”

Heijnen only recently stepped into his role as State Secretary for Taxation, succeeding Tjebbe Van Oostenbruggen in early September after Van Oostenbruggen’s resignation. His early stance suggests the government will prioritize stability and regulation over reactive policy changes, even if gambling tax revenues soften.

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