Macau’s casino sector has started the year with strong momentum, generating MOP12.1 billion ($1.5 billion) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) by January 19. Analysts attribute the performance to solid demand ahead of the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, which begins on January 29 and marks the Year of the Snake.
JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li expect moderate growth during the eight-day CNY celebration. They anticipate that gross gaming revenue will grow by low to mid-single digits year-on-year. The analysts project a 4% industry growth for the first half of 2025, with second-half growth at 7%, resulting in a full-year increase of 5%.
S&P Global shares a similar outlook, forecasting a 5%-6% rise in GGR for 2025. Mass gaming is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 15%-20%, while VIP junket volumes are likely to remain subdued unless regulatory changes occur. Total GGR is projected to reach 80%-85% of 2019 levels.
The Macau government has set an ambitious target for the year, aiming for MOP240 billion ($30 billion) in GGR. This represents an 11% increase from the 2024 forecast. The Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO) also predicts that visitor numbers could reach 39 million in 2025, close to the 39.4 million recorded in 2019 and exceeding the 33 million reported in 2024.
Mainland China remains Macau’s largest source of visitors, accounting for 70.1% of arrivals in 2024, followed by Hong Kong at 20.6%. During the Chinese New Year period, 185,000 daily visitors are expected, with only 4.3% arriving from outside Asia.
Efforts to expand the tourism base are ongoing. The MGTO has been actively promoting Macau in international markets through campaigns and events. Promotional activities were held in Cyprus in 2024, and similar events are planned for Tokyo, Seoul, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Jakarta by mid-2025. These initiatives aim to attract more diverse visitor demographics while maintaining Macau’s strong appeal to its primary markets.
Macau’s casino operators and the tourism sector appear well-positioned for growth in 2025. With solid demand during key holidays like the Chinese New Year and strategic efforts to broaden the visitor base, the region is on track to meet its ambitious revenue and tourism goals.
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