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Europe unlicensed online gambling market could reach €13 billion in 2026 after growing at an estimated 18% compound annual rate since 2019, according to new research commissioned by Euromat.
The study by Regulus Partners and Helios covered 28 European markets and found that a relatively small group of operators now controls much of the unlicensed traffic. It also links weaker channeling to tighter product rules, advertising limits, taxation and reduced consumer choice.
Good to Know
- Europe unlicensed gambling market generated an estimated €12 billion in net revenue during 2025.
- The report says 25 operators account for around 64% of relevant unlicensed gambling traffic.
- The unlicensed market represented roughly 25% of Europe online gambling sector in 2025.
A Small Group Controls Most Unlicensed Traffic
Large operators now account for most activity tracked outside domestic licensing systems.
According to the report, the biggest group of sites under common ownership holds around 12% of traffic, while the largest individual brand controls about 10%.
“The largest black market operators have scaled to create recognisable brands with traffic that can compare to domestically licensed operators,” the report’s authors wrote. “The top group of sites by common owner has a 12% share of traffic, while the largest single brand has 10%.”
Crypto payments, international sponsorships and recognizable brands have helped larger operators reach customers across borders. Some also hold licences in offshore jurisdictions with lighter regulatory requirements, making ownership structures and local enforcement more complex.
Smaller unlicensed sites work differently. Many depend heavily on affiliates to attract players.
Product availability also plays a role. France, for example, does not license online casino gaming, creating demand that operators outside the domestic licensing system can target.
Restrictions Linked to Lower Channeling
Regulus and Helios argue that tighter regulated market rules can encourage some customers to look elsewhere.
Around 46% of the markets studied apply extensive advertising restrictions. The report also identified consumer taxation in 29% of markets, restricted products in 14% and monopoly structures in five jurisdictions as factors associated with unlicensed play.
“If a customer finds black market sites that have all their preferred betting and gaming options, convenience dictates they will transfer a broad range of their expenditure there. Consumer recycling means that banning or restricting key products has a broader distortive impact on the entire market,” the report noted.
The same effect can apply to online slots when regulated products offer lower RTP levels or tighter bonus rules than offshore alternatives, according to the research.
Player concentration remains high as well. The report estimates that the top 1% of active customers generates almost half of European unlicensed gambling revenue.
UK Unlicensed Market Could Approach €1 Billion
The UK provides one of the clearest case studies in the report.
Researchers linked weaker channeling partly to affordability checks and predicted that the increase in Remote Gaming Duty could add further pressure. The UK raised Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 40% on April 1, 2026.
Regulus estimates that unlicensed UK gambling could reach around €1 billion as some players seek bonuses and products unavailable under regulated market rules.
The UK government says the higher Remote Gaming Duty forms part of a wider tax package designed to raise more than £1 billion annually while placing a larger tax burden on remote gaming products associated with higher gambling harm.
How the Europe Gambling Study Was Built
Helios tracked unlicensed gambling websites actively marketed across the 28 jurisdictions between March and May, then compared those findings with Similarweb traffic data.
Researchers also examined digital marketing, regulation, macroeconomic data and policy changes. The wider project involved more than 1,000 hours of analysis.
Several markets, including France, Portugal, the Netherlands, Germany, Cyprus, Belgium and Spain, showed more actively marketed unlicensed sites than locally licensed operators.
FAQ
How large is Europe unlicensed gambling market?
The Euromat commissioned study estimates €12 billion in net revenue for 2025 and up to €13 billion by the end of 2026.
How fast is unlicensed gambling growing in Europe?
Researchers estimate an 18% compound annual growth rate between 2019 and 2026.
What drives unlicensed gambling traffic?
The report identifies product restrictions, advertising limits, taxation, monopoly structures, crypto payments and differences in bonuses or RTP as contributing factors.
How much of the market do the biggest operators control?
Around 25 operators account for approximately 64% of relevant unlicensed gambling traffic, according to the study.
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